Leading Through Change: Staying Strategic in Uncertain Times

Strategic foresight, perspective, and choice

Markets shift. Plans unravel. Great leaders adapt.

If the last few years have taught us anything, it’s that leadership is no longer about having the perfect plan it’s about having the right principles. When volatility strikes, some leaders abandon these, freeze or retreat into micro-management. Others hold their nerve, stay strategic, and help their teams find clarity amid uncertainty.

The difference isn’t luck. It’s sense-making  the ability to understand what kind of challenge you’re facing and how best to respond.

1️⃣ Sense-Making Before Strategy: The Cynefin Framework

One of the most valuable tools for navigating uncertainty is the Cynefin Framework, developed by Dave Snowden. It helps leaders distinguish between different kinds of situations and therefore, different kinds of responses.

Domain	Leadership Focus	Example
Clear	Apply best practice	Routine processes, compliance, or customer service standards
Complicated	Analyse and plan with experts	Strategic planning, funding structures, system design
Complex	Experiment and learn	Cultural change, market repositioning, innovation
Chaotic	Act fast to stabilise	Crisis, loss of key client, reputational issue

Great leaders learn to read the situation before they act. They know that what worked last quarter may not work this quarter and that sometimes, progress means running small experiments rather than executing grand plans.

2️⃣ Anchoring in Principles, Not Panic

When plans collapse, reactive leaders chase noise. Strategic leaders return to principles clarity of purpose, trust in their people, and disciplined communication.

They ask:

• What is our core purpose here?

• What truths still hold, regardless of external turbulence?

• What can we control and what must we simply observe?

This shift from control to clarity transforms uncertainty from paralysis into progress.

3️⃣ Scenario Mapping: Thinking Ahead, Without Over-Planning

Scenario mapping is another powerful leadership technique in uncertain times. Instead of clinging to a single forecast, you model several plausible futures and design flexible responses to each.

For example:

• Best case: market stabilises → accelerate growth plans.

• Mid case: slow recovery → tighten cashflow and focus on retention.

• Worst case: major disruption → pivot or pause selectively.

When leaders map scenarios, they prepare their teams mentally for change. They turn anxiety into awareness.

4️⃣ The Mentor’s Role: Supporting Decision-Making in Ambiguity

Mentors and coaches are uniquely positioned to help leaders think strategically when visibility is low. Through the use of questioning frameworks like Cynefin, CLEAR, or TGROW, mentors will typically help executives explore:

• What’s known, unknown, and emerging

• What patterns can be sensed, rather than controlled

• Which experiments could generate learning safely

This reflective space allows leaders to slow down their thinking before speeding up their action.

5️⃣ Stories from the Field

Over the years, I’ve seen leaders who kept their composure in chaos and those who didn’t. One CEO I mentored faced a complete market stall during a funding freeze. Instead of cutting everything, she paused, reframed her role, and ran small pilots with loyal clients. Within six months, she’d repositioned the business for recurring revenue and stronger resilience.

Another founder realised his leadership issue wasn’t strategy, but over-control. Once he learned to shift from directing to sensing, his team began surfacing solutions he’d never have seen alone.

The thread running through both? They didn’t react they read the situation and responded with intent.

The Takeaway

Strategic leaders stay agile by anchoring in clarity and principles, not panic.

When markets shake, resist the urge to “fix everything.” Instead:

• Sense what’s really happening

• Stay grounded in purpose and principle

• Lead through experiments, not edicts

• Keep mentoring conversations alive they create the clarity you need to move forward

Because leadership under pressure isn’t about being right. It’s about staying strategic enough to adapt.